H1N1: a physical safety/security threat with high attack rate, low probability of serious impact

There is a lot of uncertainty around the H1N1 flu strain (aka Swine Flu) being spread around, and want to make sure I pass on some useful (and actionable) information that I've found.

As with any flu or non-influenza respiratory illness, there is risk for complications. H1N1 is observed to infect different subpopulations preferentially, and we lack built-up immunity to this new strain.

http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-SwineFlu/idUSTRE5973DC20091008

WHAT IS INFLUENZA AND WHAT ARE THE SYMPTOMS OF H1N1 SWINE FLU?

Influenza is a virus that infects the nose, throat and lungs. Seasonal flu typically kills 250,000 to 500,000 people globally, mostly the elderly but also very young children, pregnant women and people with chronic diseases.

H1N1 swine flu is a new strain that appeared in March and became pandemic in June. Like seasonal flu, H1N1 is usually mild and requires no medical care. But H1N1 also differs from seasonal flu because it is more likely to infect children and young people than the elderly.

Most H1N1 symptoms are the same as seasonal flu: fever, coughing or sore throat, runny or stuffy nose, headaches, body aches, chills and fatigue. But swine flu also can cause vomiting and diarrhea.

Dozens of other viruses cause similar symptoms but one hallmark of influenza is a sudden onset of symptoms. An illness that develops gradually is likely to be from another virus.

http://www.reuters.com/article/internal_ReutersNewsRoom_ExclusivesAndWins_MOLT/idUSTRE56N6C620090725

Each year, seasonal flu infects about 20 million people in the United States alone, CDC estimates. But that is a virus many people have had several times, so there is a high level of general immunity.

H1N1 is new to just about everybody's immune system, so more people may be susceptible.

Death rates are still unclear, too. Each year, influenza is involved in anywhere between 250,000 and 500,000 deaths globally, the WHO estimates -- based on some of those kinds of models.

http://pandemicflu.gov/individualfamily/about/symptoms/index.html

The symptoms for all flu, including H1N1 (Swine) flu, are similar. They include fever, cough, sore throat, runny or stuffy nose, body aches, headaches, and chills.

http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/alert-alerte/h1n1/index-eng.php

The H1N1 flu virus – also known as human swine influenza – is a respiratory illness that affects the nose, throat and lungs. This virus usually affects pigs, but has been transferred to humans.

The H1N1 flu virus has caused primarily mild illness in Canada, but Canadians need to be prepared to respond to a potentially more severe form of the virus that may emerge this fall.

http://www.flufacts.com/about/cold.aspx

How to Tell the Difference Between a Cold and the Flu

The cold and flu are both respiratory illnesses, but they are caused by different types of viruses. Flu symptoms usually come on quickly (within 3-6 hours) and consist of a fever, body aches, dry cough, and extreme tiredness. Cold symptoms are less severe and people experience a stuffy nose, productive cough, slight tiredness, and limited body aches.

I have a relatively simple suggestion for making the decision on whether or not to get the H1N1 vaccine. Without knowing what strains you are immune to, you can use this quick and dirty test:

IF you are getting the general flu shot (vaccinated against a number of known strains of varying severity) THEN you should get the H1N1 vaccination too.

IF you aren't getting the general flu shot, and aren't in a high-risk group (risk groups are different for H1N1 than standard flu strains, THEN maybe you should skip H1N1.

Either way, you will want to carefully consider waiting in a crazy lineup to get the vaccination. A number of the people in those lines are likely already sick, and those lineups are probably great ways to catch a cold or flu just like hanging out in a Doctor's office.

One last word: H1N1 is a mild flu strain. At worst it is medium severity. There are publicly available numbers to support that, the most important being mortality rate. Simply put, H1N1 isn't more likely to kill people than the normal flu. Arguably, it is less likely. That said, numbers of deaths may be higher than normal due to the fact that H1N1 spreads rapidly due to lack of built-up immunity in the general population. Think of it this way: the low probability of serious complications still results in a high number of those complications if there are simply a lot more sick people than normal.

(I have at least 1 friend who has confirmed H1N1, and it is present in a local childcare dayhome. I'm not blaise about this, just a critical thinker. We'd have less insanity in the form of 6-hour lineups, media panic, etc, if more people were critical thinkers. I know, I ask a lot, don't I? ;P )